Oxford, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

165
FXUS64 KBMX 152314
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
614 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

 - There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday night into
   Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central
   Alabama and then again late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
   evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and
   large hail are the main threats.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

It`s quickly warming up out there with the early morning cloud
cover now mixed out and a steady supply of sunshine across the
area. In the low to mid-levels, a broad ridge is centered over the
northern Gulf with warm, dry flow from the west. The ridge axis
will gradually shift eastward through tomorrow with deep-layer
flow transitioning more to the southwest. After a mild night,
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon
with many locations in the south expected to reach the lower 90s.
The forecast remains dry until late tomorrow night, as discussed
below.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

No major changes were made to the grids. Only a minor change was
made to the severe timing for pre-dawn hours early Saturday as
the storms could arrive a tad sooner, so we bumped up the start
time for severe potential from 3am to 1am. Otherwise, all other
thinking is similar.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

A low pressure will deepen and move over the Ohio Valley, with a
frontal boundary moving into the area Friday night through
Saturday evening. Rain and thunderstorms could move into the
northwestern counties after midnight, with activity increasing in
coverage by mid morning. As the front sags south, most of the area
should see showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon,
continuing through the evening. Instabilities are high, with 3000
J/kg plus forecasted right now, and plenty of shear. Will have to
analyze the severe potential as the front gets closer.
Uncertainties include how quickly the front makes it into the area
and how much convection will occur through the morning ahead of
the stronger afternoon storms.

Sunday, high pressure develops over the Gulf with flow turning to
the west and southwest around this high. A shortwave is expected
to move across the southeast states with showers and
thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon. Instabilities right now look
to be slightly lower than Saturday, though still high, with
several thousand J/kg. Any activity should weaken fairly quickly
with sunset.

Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure should become the dominant
feature with most of the area remaining rain free each day. A
series of thunderstorms will move around the high, with most of
the coverage north of the area. The very far northern fringes of
central AL could see isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon.

By Wednesday, a low pressure will develop over the Plains and move
east. A frontal boundary with that low will move across the state.
The front should be stronger with the low pressure closer to the
state compared to the low moving through the Ohio Valley this
weekend. Though the wind field is expected to be widespread and
moderate.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals.
Similar to the last few nights, MVFR ceilings are expected
between 09-15Z. Patchy fog is also possible around MGM closer to
sunrise. Otherwise, winds this evening and beginning to weaken.
After a stretch of light southerly winds tonight, they will
restrengthen out of the south-southwest through the afternoon
hours Friday.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An overall dry trend will be in place through Friday. Slightly
drier conditions than this afternoon are expected on Friday ahead
of the next system. Minimum RH values will be the 40s north to
upper 30s in the south, with 20ft winds around 7 to 10 mph. Rain
enters the area Friday night across the north with rain chances
continuing through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  88  67  87 /  10   0  50  30
Anniston    68  89  69  86 /  10   0  30  30
Birmingham  70  88  69  86 /   0   0  40  30
Tuscaloosa  70  90  71  88 /   0   0  30  30
Calera      69  89  71  87 /   0   0  20  30
Auburn      68  89  69  86 /   0   0   0  20
Montgomery  69  92  70  90 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...95/Castillo